All eyes are on Justin Trudeau; it's time

We are facing unprecedented times; Canadians deserve an election.

Some might say I’m arriving late to the “Trudeau must go” party that’s been going fairly strong since 2022 (or, since the early 1980’s in my home province of Alberta).

They wouldn’t be wrong.

I wasn’t there in 2019 when the Liberals won their second election and formation of a strong minority government because they won the most seats across the country — that may be too inside ball for people outside of Alberta, but it was a whole thing here. Trust me.

I wasn’t there when the provinces were setting up vaccine passports, or mandating business closures to protect our hospitals. I like to think it wasn’t just because those decisions were made by provincial governments.

I didn’t even necessarily get on board when I thought that the worst move the Liberals made was creating a carbon tax carve-out on heating oil from their signature climate plan policy. In my defence, I was still under the misguided impression that the Prime Minister would see what a horribly poor decision that was all on his own and step down before the snow melted in spring of 2024. My bad.

What finally got me on board was President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to come after the Canadian economy, and his subsequent attacks on the Office of our Prime Minister. Note: I didn’t say “attacks on our Prime Minister” — that wouldn’t have been noticeably different; I’m from Alberta and I’m used to it.

Complete disclosure, the fact that the liberals haven’t seen a lead in public opinion polling since early 2023 played a small role, but this is not about popularity (or lack thereof).

Under normal circumstances, I haven’t managed to care how unpopular a sitting Canadian government is. To my way of thinking, they were elected to govern for four years and the fact that they might actually do it is not something I consider especially problematic; even if I don’t personally like or support them.

We are no longer in “normal circumstances”, however.

The threats that an incoming president of our closest geographical ally is making against our country is unprecedented. As a result, my reaction to it is equally so.

Canadians deserve stable leadership

According to our fixed election laws, Canadians are supposed to head to the polls by the third Monday in October every fourth calendar year. Ergo, we are anticipating an election in 2025.

This is a fact that, under normal circumstances, I would be perfectly happy to wait for.

The rumour mill in Ottawa is still churning. An announcement, perhaps a resignation, could be coming as early as Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

In advance of an announcement I do not know the contents of, the Prime Minister has a few options available to him.

First, he could announce he is stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, triggering a leadership race, and prorogue parliament until its conclusion when a new leader would automatically become Prime Minister.

This is the absolute worst option. As I mentioned above, my concern is not out of partisanship, or even a dislike of the Prime Minister as a person — though, to be honest, I think that’s on shaky ground at the moment.

This is the worst possible option because it is statistically probable that we will see a change in leadership after the next general election, which means that Mr. Trump will have the upper hand dealing with a government, and leader, that is the equivalent of a dead man walking. If Mr. Trump is handed more leverage than the United States of America already possesses, that is obviously not good for Canada.

Holding the fort while the party goes through the motions of electing a new leader who is likely to lead the party to a 1993 Progressive Conservative Party of Canada-level shellacking, would only introduce yet a possible third person who is negotiating on Canada’s behalf over the next year.

Not helpful.

To be clear; the time to care at all for the electoral chances of the Liberal Party of Canada ended last summer. Making this argument now would be laughable if it were not likely to be so detrimental to our country’s position in the face of Mr. Trump’s threats.

As a second option, Mr. Trudeau could announce that he is proroguing parliament to circumvent a non-confidence motion and not step down, a la Stephen Harper in 2008.

This is also a bad idea for the same reasons as above. Canada is facing a major threat to our economic prosperity, and potentially, our sovereignty. This is not the time to play cute political games.

Third — and this would probably result in a storming of Ottawa that would make the 2022 convoy look like a cute pet parade the neighbourhood children put together — the Prime Minister could postpone the election until 2026.

The Constitution Acts of 1867 and 1982 set the maximum time between federal general elections at five years, except in time of real or apprehended war, invasion or insurrection.

Elections Canada (accessed January 2, 2025)

Okay, so maybe don’t encourage anyone to storm Ottawa or the next election could be pushed even further down the road.

The fourth, and, from what I’ve observed is the least likely — but most Canadian-centric — option, is that Mr. Trudeau realizes that Canadians deserve to have an election and choose the person they believe will be the best leader during this unprecedented time in our nation’s history.

Truth be told, I don’t even have a preference for who wins that election; it’s not about parties, or even personalities at this moment — it’s about allowing Canadians the opportunity to choose political stability as soon as possible that will last (hopefully) throughout Donald Trump’s final (fingers crossed) term as president.

I don’t ask a lot from my government but this is what I want from my government right now.

Canadians deserve an election

“We are so fucking distracted as a nation. This is insane. I don’t think we appreciate the threats we are being faced with as a nation with Donald Trump. It’s not just the 51st state stuff, for sure the 51st state stuff, but it‘s not just the 51st state stuff. We seem to have forgotten the 25 per cent tariff that’s coming down the barrel. We seem to have forgotten all of his bellicose actions and what they might mean. If he does evict from the country, people who are there, they aren’t just going to go back to the border on the south, many of them are going to come to the border on the north. We have shit to do. We have shit to do and it’s serious shit and we can’t be sitting here arguing about the Prime Minister and the leadership rules of the fucking Liberal Party. And we can’t have a prorogued parliament for the next six months either. We need a fucking election. We need a Prime Minister with a mandate from the population. I don’t care what you think of Pierre Poilievre, but the fact that the Prime Minister is a dead man walking is not helping.”

Corey Hogan, The Strategists podcast 58:56, December 27, 2024

Full disclosure, that fairly uncharacteristic rant was the inspiration for this post.

Canadians deserve an election.

The strongest move that the current Prime Minister could make when he is next in front of the microphones is to announce an imminent election.

This is the time to put the needs of the country ahead of those of the political party. The once in a lifetime opportunity to show true leadership in difficult times.

Now is the time to set aside personal ambitions, or aspirations, and ask Canadians to put their faith in you, or someone else, to lead them through the next four years.

That takes real leadership.

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