Not long ago, I would have said this year has ushered in politico Christmas, or a pundit jackpot. To be fair, it is still those things, but without all the joy that “Christmas” and “jackpot” convey.
With that being said, the world keeps turning and while the Prime Minister will remain in the forefront as we deal with new and expected challenges from the incoming philosopher king to the south, a leadership race to replace him will be unfolding in the background.
Unlike the political system in America, Canada does not elect a spare who will automatically become leader if the current leader indicates their intention to step down.
Initially, and perhaps surprisingly, there appeared to be a wealth of interest in becoming leader of a party that has been run ragged under an unpopular leader and, by most accounts, appeared to be on the verge of collapse; at least electorally.
Some called it “the full Mulroney”. When the Liberal Party of Canada hit the dreaded 16 per cent support in a year-end poll, it had sunk to the exact level of the former Progressive Conservative Party of Canada before Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, too, stepped down, triggered a leadership race, and then went to an election which saw the party go from majority government to only two seats.
There is one major difference now that did not exist then: an incoming American leader’s continued threats against Canadian sovereignty and its people.
The wheel of fortune also turns
Barely a week ago, I argued against Justin Trudeau triggering a leadership race, preferring an immediate election to secure a mandate from Canadians to provide stability in the federal government.
When the Prime Minister announced his resignation, three days ago, and said he would remain until a new leader was selected, it did not change my mind.
Two days ago, however, incoming president Donald Trump affirmed that his goal was to apply enough economic pressure on Canada through the use of tariffs (his only admission thus far) to encourage us to relinquish sovereignty and instead become a subordinate state under American rule.
In a rare show of solidarity, Mr. Trump’s intention was rejected by the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Official Opposition, and the leaders of the NDP, Green, and People’s Party of Canada.
It was the first time in recent memory when all of the party leaders were in agreement.
Make no mistake; it is precisely this solidarity that we need, now, and in the near future.
After this brief show of unity, it occurred to me that this very real threat to everything we actually love about our country, is perhaps best faced — at least in the short-term — by someone who no longer has to worry about the next election and can focus entirely on the work that must be done now.
You’ve seen them before, political exits before the exit date, colloquially referred to as entering their “DGAF era”, when they are no longer bound as strictly by the expectations of their party, leader, or caucus.
Personally, I was sold on that alone, but if I needed to make the case to the person specifically, I would agree that this offers the Prime Minister an opportunity to make his resignation a fleeting memory (not pretending that it didn’t happen) and instead leave Canadians thankful for his strong leadership ahead of the transition both within his own party, and towards a general election in Canada.
It will probably mean that the Liberal leadership contest will not receive near as much attention as it otherwise would, but, as someone who has been on the edge of their seat through five provincial and three federal leadership races, that might work out in their favour.
As we await the finalization of rules from the Liberal Party itself, the expectation is that it will look very different than races past.
Mr. Trudeau secured a prorogation of parliament until March 24, which does not give the candidates time to run a fulsome race, but due to the exigent circumstances surrounding the need to acquire a new leader prior to that date, it is expected that the Party will make it fit.
Who’s ready to go?
There are inklings of who would contest the leadership race, and only one formal announcement; from Liberal backbencher Arya Chandra, MP Nepean, who may be committing some light treason by campaigning to “abolish the monarchy”.
Building on that rocky beginning, at a moment when Canada is likely seeking to strengthen its ties with Britain, and every other ally we have in the Commonwealth of Nations, I don’t think Mr. Chandra has really thought through his campaign strategy enough to be considered a serious challenger.
Or, as seen in the wonderful world of political snark, “you can’t make me learn who that is.”
Surely, I’ve already said more than was necessary.
That the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada will see their role as Prime Minister cut (very) short is not in great dispute; however, winning the leadership race still awards the recipient with the title of Canada’s 24th Prime Minister, and is therefore still a prize worth seeking.
Mark Carney is still, amazingly, as “in” as he has been for the past year and a half, and I cannot actually tell if that means anything more today.
Chrystia Freeland, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, who was once widely believed to be the obvious successor to Justin Trudeau, is still a marginal favourite if she decides to run, according to the latest polling from Abacus.
Adding to the list of potential candidates is a slightly controversial figure who I personally quite liked for the position: Christy Clark.
Hear me out.
As the Liberal Premier of British Columbia, it was often said that she was simply a conservative wearing Liberal colours. Since the Conservative Party was unable to get a foothold in the province until the collapse of the renamed B.C. United (formerly the B.C. Liberal Party), conservative-learning individuals who sought public service ran under the most conservative party the province had, which was the Liberal party. Usually, liberals who have slightly right of centre views are referred to as “Blue Liberals”. We also know them from other timelines, and provinces, as “Progressive Conservatives”.
Sure, she’s yet to have been given a cute nickname like “Carbon Tax Carney”, and she was not Justin Trudeau’s “political partner” for the last decade, but she also wasn’t Justin Trudeau’s anything — and neither was she the NDP’s anything — and you cannot tell me that doesn’t count for something, today.
Furthermore, the amount of blue in Christy Clark’s Liberal makes her a very difficult target for Pierre Poilievre.
I’m just saying, it might be worth thinking about.
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Only problem… she’s not a Liberal. Definitely not liberal.
Will be interesting to see if can avoid the glass cliff ala Kim Campbell as she is not (so) tarred with the “fringe elephants” that Pepe LePew invited into the big tent.