Apologies folks; I had drafts but just realized I hadn’t posted any of them. It is a bit long because of that, though…
Ontario’s fallout boy, or, the trumped-up ad
It really was a great ad by Ford’s government and it hit the longed-for virality that every advertising campaign hopes for: over four billion views, and another round of Premier Doug Ford on the U.S. media circuit. However, it also had the predictable reaction of piercing the notoriously thin skin of the U.S. president who then used it as an excuse to cancel trade talks. As almost everyone but the official opposition agrees, if it wasn’t that, it would have been something else.
I frequent a few circles where Mark Carney, but especially the “elbows up” campaign, is widely disliked. Some because he’s liberal, others because he’s not Pierre Poilievre, and others still because he’s not NDP. If you’ve been around long enough, you know I voted for the Liberal’s paper candidate in my rural Alberta riding because of Mark Carney. In response to someone trying to work themselves up into a froth just yesterday over the possibility, I replied “yes, I voted for the economic genius over the career politician who once had a telemarketing job (obviously).”
Point being, yes, there was an “elbows up” campaign that conservatives love to get mad about in the aftermath but seriously, who actually votes based on a slogan?
…
I still like the “elbows up” moniker, even if the Prime Minister finds it necessary to try and assuage Donald Trump’s bruised ego with an apology when they are seated at the same table in a foreign nation overseas; an action I expect was precipitated by that circumstance over any actual desire to do so. It does nothing to change my reasoning for voting for the man because it doesn’t in any way deter from the reason I voted for him. Personally.
I’m also not upset with Doug Ford or his ad; the U.S. president is producing for himself and the country an alternate reality show and reminding Republicans that they were once the party of free trade didn’t hurt us in any way. No trade deal forthcoming? As I said, if it wasn’t this it would have been something else. Mr. Trump is just pissing around waiting for his plans to work while every other country looks to redefine their trade partnerships without the U.S. which is definitely not a potential outcome they’ve considered at all.
The book of budget
Meanwhile, Mark Carney released the budget and even though I could read 400+ pages, budgets are really big communications tools and, in my experience of following along with the budgets over the past eight years, wish lists rather than guarantees.
Budgets tell voters what the government would like to prioritize but sometimes realities get in the way. Maybe there’s a pandemic, or oil prices enter a free fall, or an unreliable trade partner whose favourite word is “tariffs”. What the last eight years have taught me is that budgets are not set in stone even though they do tell us a lot about what a government wants to do. They’re also opportunities for the government to pad their numbers here and there so they show up next year with lower deficits than expected.
If I sound jaded, it’s because I am; the only thing that matters is action.
With that being said, initial reactions to the budget weren’t entirely awful.
Rumours were circling among conservatives that the Liberals could be tabling a $100 billion deficit, but it came in at $75 billion. It’s a rookie mistake of setting expectations too high. Pierre Poilievre kept his own number lower than anyone was expecting, at $43 billion, which allows him to claim fiscal championship while not having to actually make decisions.
Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Etremont (CPC) had his own story going earlier that day when Politico broke the news that he was “thinking about” crossing the floor, which was followed up by a statement from the Liberal caucus that he had in fact made his decision. It gave Budget Day a little extra sauce, to be sure.
The Liberals are now only two seats shy of a majority with two weeks to go until the budget vote, set for November 17.
Which reminds me; Ontario MP Jamil Jivani is living his best life producing a one-man show called “The National Forum to End Liberal Racism”. Word on the street is that he did invite members of the Liberal caucus to opening day, November 17. Of course, it’s not really a “National Forum”, it’s just something that can be rescheduled for when CPC members can take the day off from Parliament. Anyhoo. I expect it’s doing incredible numbers where the bot farms grow, but no, it’s not a “real” thing.
Some budget highlights:
100% immediate capital cost deduction for eligible manufacturing and processing facility development and more on tax and incentives (KPMG)
$51 billion for local infrastructure over five years and more (CBC)
$73 billion for military development and infrastructure and more (Global)
While the $78 billion deficit is notable, the government expects to begin saving on operational costs that does include a reduction in federal staffing, and is likely relying on the kickstart to the economy increasing revenues to bring the deficit down over the next three years.
For numbers people (which I am not) I recommend looking to economists.
In a mashup for the Hub, University of Calgary’s Trevor Tombe says that while government spending increases, it falls short of “generational investments” — at least by government. Dr. Tombe notes that other changes announced do more to incentivize private investment (which the Prime Minister has said was his preference).
Mike Moffatt of The Missing Middle Initiative was disappointed to see less money allocated to housing initiatives than the government had promised in their election platform, but in fairness to the feds, that’s not entirely in their control as it requires provinces and municipalities as well. What is in their control is the decision to (temporarily?) reduce the number of immigrants and non-permanent resident visas they approve, which they also highlighted.
William Robson from the CD Howe Institute lashes out at fiscal credibility (which fully supports my earlier assertion that budgets are little more than wish lists), with Heather Exner-Pirot and Michael Gullo of the Business Council of Canada rounding out the panel with some unreserved optimism for oil and gas.
With two weeks until the budget vote, we’ll wait and see where we are next week.
Speaking of which
The Budget is a confidence vote, which means that if it does not pass in the House, Canadians will be heading to the polls for Christmas. I don’t really want an election but I have to admit my off-the-cuff phrasing drew an unintended spark of excitement. However, I’d prefer floor crossings.
There are a few red tories who have managed to hang on in the CPC and some of them must be looking ahead and wondering how much longer they want to do nothing but complain. If they can foresee sticking around for six or eight more years, they’ll probably be just fine in opposition, but they also might be thinking that maybe this is their last one and they want to be part of building something before they leave.
It might be possible. Then again, so is a Christmas election.
Middle America
SCOTUS hearing tariff arguments
On October 30, the Senate passed a non-binding vote against the Trump tariffs on Canada. Obviously, it’s non-binding, and this question is currently being argued in front of the Supreme Court. The challenge was brought to the Supreme Court by a handful of small businesses and 12 states; it’s unfortunate they couldn’t have had a list of plaintiffs a few miles long because I bet they exist.
Three lower courts have already ruled that Trump’s tariffs are illegal, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary says Canada will remain subject to tariffs, under the current authorizations or some others, no matter what the court decides.
That’s not really a surprise; the administration has pretty much thrown a middle finger at conventions and legal obligations since it was sworn in. It is, as it always was, in the hands of the people.
Which of course brings us full circle to Doug Ford’s advertisement. The U.S. people are under a siege against facts. Some went willingly to bask in the glow of Donald Trump’s fever dream, and some were dragged along, but it’s never not going to be a good time to remind them of what leadership used to look like in their country.
It’s always going to be helpful to remind them what Republicans used to stand for.
It might even make them want to wake up.
Man not guilty of assault for throwing sub sandwich at federal agent
Yeah that’s a thing!
PS: don’t throw things at dudes with guns unless you absolutely have to
So! A guy threw his submarine sandwich at a federal agent, and it was kind of amusing. More amusing though, was when they tried to get him charged with felony assault (denied) and then was on trial for misdemeanor assault. Also, great sandwich puns abound.
It tickled my funny bone to read the… injured officer’s account. Like, it’s not easy to trump things up that obviously are in need of trumping up because they’re not actually what you want to make others believe they are. Remember, it was a sandwich. According to the officer’s testimony, he felt the sandwich “spike” him, through his kevlar vest. No end to the trumping, really.
After far more hours of deliberation than one would think necessary, and notification that “the jury reached out to the judge earlier today for clarification on the term ‘bodily harm’,” sandwich guy was found not guilty.
I recommend some of the threads for a little light reading :)
Final thoughts
AND: Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor of NYC on November 4. Very interesting times indeed.
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Great run-down of events. There's lot going on ...
Great morning read....