Alberta’s separatist movement has, until very recently, managed to stay out of the mainstream consciousness in the province despite the fact that some have been talking about it ever since Danielle Smith amended election laws last April to give them an easier path to making a referendum on Alberta separation happen.
In her now-classic portrayal of a doe-eyed and dim-witted know-nothing that she adopts to avoid questions she doesn’t want to answer, Alberta’s Premier said she didn’t “want to prejudge” what referenda questions would be brought forward. She added later in a response during question period that when she “looked at California, most of the propositions that come forward are left-wing propositions,” (page 3252). That’s the maple maga premier we all know here in Alberta; always going out her way to make legislative changes that empower the left-wing.
In fact, after those “left-wing” propositions began popping up, like the petition to end public funding for private schools and Corb Lund’s Water not Coal, the UCP once again amended the legislation to require a $25,000 deposit on citizen-led referenda petitions that would only be refunded if the petition met its signature quota. And cancelled approval for those yet to begin collecting signatures. With a 30-day grace period on implementation for the ones that had been approved (Water not Coal) and any others that might have needed to resubmit their question under the new legislation. Like, sure, the separatist question but also any other question that might have been waiting to be submitted; any other question at all.
Ms. Smith has also consistently repeated her tired line that she “supports a ‘sovereign’ Alberta within a united Canada”, as her first bill after being awarded the premiership— by those who were willing to pay $10 to vote for literally anyone else in the 2022 UCP leadership race— was named.
The doe-eyed dimwit act might play well with a certain segment of the population, and perhaps to some it might not be at odds with the depiction of a “strong conservative woman”, but one glaring problem has recently come to light thanks to some targeted polling by Abacus Data; a slim majority of Albertans don’t believe her.
Ruh roh raggy
Polling is just a snapshot in time, yadda, yadda. In politics, we most often pay attention to the question, “who would you vote for if an election were held today?” When an election is not being held today, we simply put the pin in the line to track its projection. Pollsters have been interested in the answer to whether Albertans are supportive of separation for a few years now and it’s a line that has remained remarkably steady at 30 per cent support; even though there was a bit of movement after Liberals remained in government since 2018.
Abacus asked the same question after the Premier’s public address announcing her favoured draft referendum questions, but they added another that I think is causing some discomfort for the UCP; “if Alberta holds a referendum to separate from Canada and become a sovereign country, how do you think the following people would vote?”
The red flags don’t get much bigger than that.
In politics, perception is everything.
It’s why the Premier put on her best act as the doe-eyed dimwit who had no clue about the alleged fraud that was allegedly being aided by her own Chief of Staff, but who was allegedly removed within days of the former AHS CEO allegedly meeting with the manager of Executive Council— to allegedly complain about the alleged aiding— who was also shifted out of his role and into an “arm’s length” position as CEO of AIMCo within months of the alleged meeting. Allegedly, allegedly.
Wait… she eventually admitted that she was actually a strong Conservative woman leader who was aware of the alleged fraud, so I definitely have too many allegedly’s in there. Ah well. Better safe than sued by the owner of the company that allegedly benefitted from said alleged fraud. I digress.
Perception is everything in politics and being seen as offside with an issue as existential as one’s patriotic identity is huge. Danielle Smith definitely expected she was still fooling a majority of Albertans with her “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” schtick while she contorted her government’s position into that of a beck-and-call girl that would also amend and change laws to support the separatists.
When leaders aren’t able to lie their way out the situations they purposely create for themselves, that mistrust can leak into other areas that voters care about. And if voters no longer trust that the leader cares about the same things they do, they might not vote for their party.
It’s a bigger deal than a poll that shows 49 per cent of Albertans would support the UCP if an election were held today. Especially since there isn’t an election being held today; or for a year and a half if the Premier sticks to the “fixed election date” she already changed. That mistrust can just sit, like a heavy fog descending upon Strathmore; maybe it will lift, maybe it won’t. Who knew there were so many bodies of water around here, anyway?
Wait, there’s more
While the Premier and her caucus have all taken their turns being doe-eyed and dim-witted on separation (an honourable mention was definitely earned by House Leader Joseph Schow, who has taken multiple stabs at trying to convince us the only people talking about it is the opposition), much like an unwanted side effect of certain medications, there was leakage.
In line with the first set of poorly thought-out legislative changes the UCP made to aid the separatist movement, Alberta’s Election Commissioner sent the separation question to the court for a reference on whether it violated constitutional rights held by Treaty rights holders in Alberta. The court said that it did, which forced the UCP to make additional amendments to remove that pesky clause in support of the separatist’s question anyway.
Treaty Chiefs weren’t fooled. They recently held a vote of non-confidence in the UCP government, which was passed unanimously. It was not just a first-of-its-kind outcome in Canada, but an “Alberta first”, if you will.
Meanwhile, the UCP’s tacit, if not noticeably overt, support of the separatist movement is starting to make Alberta-based businesses antsy. For some reason, they don’t want to see investment and consumer confidence dry up over a separation referendum. Totally unforeseeable consequence of messing with the province’s economic stability simply to maintain favourability with a loud minority within their own political party, I’m sure.
The Premier is having trouble keeping up.
During an interview with long-time political journalist Paul Wells, Danielle Smith said that her government didn’t want to act as a gatekeeper who would be responsible for protecting the constitutional rights of all citizens in the province just in case removing those rights was super popular, while also asserting that her government-appointed committees would act as gatekeepers to ensure referendum questions that her government put forward were constitutional.
Two faces, three faces, who can keep count? No one who is looking for a leader they can trust, assuredly.
In the headlights
There are those who would like to topple Danielle Smith’s government. Not the loyal foot soldiers in her Cabinet, obviously, but those who were never supportive of her leadership, those who have realized her leadership is based on lies, and those who have staked their allegiance with a hostile foreign government no longer have to wait.
As the polling suggests, the UCP generally, and Danielle Smith specifically, have a weakness that is vulnerable to exploitation by someone whose strength is in direct and obvious contrast to it.
It’s not the only one.
Danielle Smith is hoping to capture the worst instincts of Albertans to blame someone else, and she’s also going all-in on the bet that Albertans will turn on immigrants. I made the argument that her favoured referendum questions didn’t have to necessarily be racist because she also offered us the ability to say “it’s just about the costs” of supporting people who move here to work for a company that gets a tax break for being a potential UCP donor in Alberta. The fact that it didn’t necessarily require Albertans to be racist to support taking away their access to health and education as a further benefit to employers, doesn’t mean that it can’t also appeal to those who would vote in favour of it because they are, unapologetic racists.
The governing party’s weaknesses are shining as brightly as the LED lights on a lifted pickup driving down the QE2; and there’s a doe-eyed dimwit standing in the middle of the road.
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Great essay - its going to be popcorn gobblin' and tossing back litres of cold beverages whilst point a finger and laughing watching Premier Measles stumble around threading her way through all her self-planted political face-palm landmines.
She and her UCP goombas have wasted a boom during a boom, slimed and gladhanded on medical procurement scandal, shredded any semblance of competent policy guidance on health care delivery while tap dancing to the one-note separtiste polka called by Mitch/Dennis and Jeff.
Is there a white cowboy hat even made for such pointy heads?
Maya Angelou said, “When people show you who they are, believe them.”
She is a one-act pony, bought and paid for, with no moral compass other than where to land on her feet.