They say true leaders are made, not born. Some people, like Ontario’s Doug Ford, have the ability to shine in times of crisis. He is one of the only leaders who managed to increase his popularity during the pandemic and it seems clear the effort he is making as chair of the provincial premiers on Team Canada is only going to increase that popularity more.
I know some in Ontario do not like other things he’s done, but even they grudgingly admit the Premier seems to effortlessly rise to the moment when circumstances dictate; he’s good at this.
Being able to come together, or stand up against a threat, regardless of political stripe, is not a challenge easily met by everyone, unfortunately.
There is a strong “Alberta First” mentality among some in Alberta. We have an active separatist movement, as well as an ingrained mistrust of Ottawa. I’d argue it was built on the fact that Liberals are in power more often and it’s so electorally advantageous for Alberta politicians to perpetuate the “us against them” rhetoric, but the reason it exists is, at this moment, less consequential than the fact that it does.
Danielle Smith came of age in this environment, not just on the edges of it, as most of us who were far outside of political circles did, but within the political environment itself. If you’ve not been entirely immersed in the culture of political parties, and their favourite think tanks, you could be forgiven for not knowing how effective they are at creating, and rewarding, conformity of thought.
Anti-Trudeau sentiment began in the circles that welcomed Danielle Smith years before she entered them. Pierre Trudeau was Alberta’s scapegoat for the global recession in the 80’s and all of its symptoms; lack of employment, double-digit interest rates, etc. He made mistakes in dealing with Alberta then, even he admitted the fact, but because of it, by the time Smith became involved, “Liberal” was already a slur, but “Trudeau” was the embodiment of everything that could go wrong for the people of Alberta.
Granted, the strength of that sentiment has subsided outside of certain political circles, but the thirst for scaring Albertans off of Liberal leanings returned when Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister.
In a province where certain circles believe that Alberta “became a wasteland” after the first Trudeau, there was a marked resurgence that spilled into the general population after the 2019 election. Conservative Party of Canada members were able to intervene in the upstart Wexit movement, and stamp it down by the 2021 election, but the will was definitely there.
This is the influence that Danielle Smith brings with her to the possibility of collaboration with the federal government; a highly partisan, deeply-held belief, that teaming up with a Trudeau would be tantamount to turning one’s back on Alberta.
Partisanship is like a cult; individuals have support and friendship so long as they are seen as being one of the group. Stop drinking the kool-aid, though, and you’re the problem.
Danielle Smith was unable, or unwilling, to make a case for herself, let alone Albertans, to be part of a team Canada approach because it’s being led by Justin Trudeau, but I have no doubt that she would be championing it under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre.
Divesting from Canada’s, and Alberta’s, future
Danielle Smith is no stranger to being in the political wilderness. When she, as leader of the opposition Wildrose Party, crossed the floor to the late Premier Jim Prentice’s governing Progressive Conservatives in 2014, she was very much on the outside. Wildrose supporters rose against her and so did Progressive Conservatives. It was the first time she was accused of political opportunism, and betrayal, at the expense of those she was supposed to lead.
She found a landing spot, at Corus Entertainment’s 770 CHQR in Calgary, and over the next four years, managed to redeem her reputation with Albertans. When the pandemic hit, things changed.
Like many people during the pandemic, Ms. Smith found herself down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories and a smaller and smaller circle of influence. While her work itself wasn’t specifically targeted, her penchant for platforming anyone willing to talk about alternate theories and medical interventions was.
She left her position in early 2021 and tightened up her circle, moving from public spheres to private ones. She started a newsletter, which was mostly used as a personal journal, that I subscribed to for reasons unknown to me that were a source of amusement in my own circle.
Following that, however, is how I learned that she and her husband were considering, and then had bought into, a retirement package in Panama. Apparently, if you are a non-citizen, the Panamanian government offers a number of incentives for retirees. The “libertarian” crowing over a list of “free” government goodies they would get by relocating still makes me smirk.
Back then, it didn’t matter; it was the spring or summer of 2021. She was making plans for her future that did not include political ambitions. That changed after Jason Kenney, who had claimed that Alberta would not have vaccine mandates, and days after the same was broadcast specifically to UCP supporters via email, announced a vaccine passport.
The plan to move to Panama, however, was done before she was presented with an opportunity to run for the leadership of the United Conservative Party in May of 2022. The fact that she was planning to leave Alberta before she made the decision to lead the province never sat well with me. It seemed like a very big risk to elect someone who actually had nothing to lose if their decisions left a horrible mess for the rest of us.
When she was elected leader of the UCP in 2022, the separatists started counting her promises; an Alberta Pension Plan, provincial police force, collecting taxes, and the like. All things that had been popular in some circles but really picked up interest under PC Premier Ralph Klein after the publication of “the Firewall Letter”.
Under Klein, a task force was set up in the PC government to seriously look at the options presented by the letter. As it turned out, the changes would be expensive. Albertans would have to pay more and if you’re willing to tell them that, you may as well tell them they should support a Trudeau government, too.
Obviously, that wasn’t happening and the plans were shelved until 2019 when Jason Kenney became premier and tasked the “Fair Deal Panel” with asking Albertans again if there was an appetite for reinventing the wheels.
Mr. Kenney’s interest in trying to swallow the extra costs faded with the pandemic but that wasn’t the case for everyone, Danielle Smith included.
Alberta’s oil revenues are a great attraction for any premier or premier hopeful, but it’s also a lot like the game of “hot potato” — no one wants to be holding it when revenue drops beneath the expenses.
That has kept every other premier in line on these “autonomy building” ideas. However, maybe it’s not a problem for you personally if you’re on a plane to Panama the day after your tenure as Premier ends.
If your future isn’t affected by the decisions you make today, are you really as concerned about the consequences?
An American Premier
There has always been a strong American influence in Alberta; if you start from being anti-Ottawa, it’s easy to start fantasizing how much greener the grass is elsewhere.
Ms. Smith has been at least a tentative advocate for American policies far longer than she’s been premier. She, like other conservatives, saw the success of Donald Trump in 2016 as the dawn of a new era where conservatives could speak their mind and not have to worry about the consequences; if being a generally despicable person or proud sexual predator wasn’t disqualifying, it left a lot of space for having only generally unpopular policy ideas and opinions.
It was still a surprise when, after being sworn in as Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith found herself having to do some re-education on how provincial powers differ from those of a U.S. governor.
Ms. Smith had, initially, been open about her excitement to attend Mr. Trump’s inauguration ceremony but has since deleted the posts on the former Twitter site.
The action does little to restore trust as she continues to push ahead on her own.
That her messaging has not changed since Mr. Trump threatened tariffs — that oil and gas would not be used as leverage in this fight — she has also said on as many occasions that oil and gas is the most powerful lever we have in fighting those tariffs. It is little consolation.
When Ms. Smith leveraged her connection with Canadian business person Kevin O’Leary to hang out at Mar-a-Lago for the weekend, some considered it a show of personal gumption, and that’s not something I disagree with — networking works for a reason.
In that desire to find an official way to get an unofficial meeting with the incoming president, however, she has left us with no “tick tock” (a record of the discussions) and instead came back saying she had “friendly and constructive” conversations but “Canada should be prepared for tariffs,” causing many to ask the obvious question: what were the friendly and constructive parts?
At this time, I can’t help but think of her divided loyalties. Her future is in Panama, another country Trump has threatened. I don’t know Danielle Smith but I do know a lot about Danielle Smith. She is a walking contradiction. She also has no problem doing what she thinks is best without asking anyone she represents for their input.
Danielle Smith left people who supported her, and counted on her, in the lurch before. Some say she acted on bad advice. Some say it’s because she saw an opportunity to better her own circumstances and took it.
They say the best determination of future behaviour is past behaviour. I’d argue that personal circumstances should also play a role. Danielle Smith’s future is not tied to Alberta, or Canada, anymore and that should be worrisome to every person who is supporting her actions now, as she heads out to Washington to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration, and spend six days rubbing elbows with the Americans.
It certainly is for me.
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Is she still going to the inauguration or did she change her plans?