I was barely paying attention when Stephen Harper was making his political plays but I was around for Jason Kenney’s. And the rise of maga (which I will always strive to withhold the respect of capitalization), and Pierre Poilievre, and not coincidentally, the re-emergence of Danielle Smith and Donald Trump, and the jockeying of separatist leaders.
Over the years, I’ve latched onto political narratives as the foundation for building and sustaining political popularity. In part because the illogical reasoning and argumentation is easy for me to identify, but also because it’s so incredibly repetitive.
It was fascinating to watch how elected Conservative leaders had to deal with unelected leaders of the separatist movement trying to manipulate Conservative supporters using their tried-and-true tactics. The “send Ottawa a message” pivot came too late to be effective, but it was entirely on brand for people who have watched how their Conservative leadership sustains Conservative popularity in Alberta.
The separatist movement, however well-versed in the language of political manipulation, went one step further— they relied not just on the popularity of perceived failures of Ottawa but on the success of a movement that wasn’t theirs.
The crossover of maga sentiment in Canadian Conservative politics has been glaring since COVID. Some Conservatives, like then-leadership hopeful Pierre Poilievre, saw an opportunity to ride the wave of discontent, adopting many of the same talking points from the southern movement. Others, like talk show host Danielle Smith, seized an opportunity to help it grow by taking most of her cues from conspirators and influencers and platforming those from the U.S. and Canada who were on the same page.
Mr. Poilievre was rewarded with the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. Ms. Smith chose to leave her position at QR770 rather than admit she was serving neither the station’s, nor the public’s, interest by platforming anyone she could find to cast doubt on the science.
Mr. Poilievre would eventually go down in defeat in the next federal election, even after Ms. Smith became Premier— allegedly with the help of the separatist movement.
She and her party then delivered on alleged promises by lowering thresholds for citizen-led petitions, changing their own legislation multiple times to allow the separatists to have their question, and also designing a massive referendum to attach any successful petitions to.
“Leaders” emerged with promises of black gold for everyone. 60 billion dollars would be redistributed to help Albertans. Oil wealth would be ours alone. It was simply an administrative detail to change ownership of federal buildings or a signature on the cheques. No biggie.
Above all, the leadership claimed they had support from the most powerful government in the world. They had meetings and everything.
The resulting referendum was a blow to their “silent majority” story when they lost the separation question so definitively. However, they still had an ostensibly successful basis of support to point to in the U.S.. It was simply a matter of regrouping and trying again.
And that’s where the Blunami came in.
It wasn’t just that their movement had suffered a setback; the movement they claimed was in support of their own was weakened, leaving a giant hole in the Alberta separatists' narrative.
The other door opened
One of the most important aspects of this analysis is that the separatists didn't create the political environment they exploited. Others had already made it possible.
As I watched the coalition that Jason Kenney was building in his bid to “unite Alberta” it was obvious that he was pulling certain people into the political sphere who had never played an outsized role before. It wasn’t that no one from those spaces played a role— think John Carpay, Joseph Schow, David Parker, and the like— it was that their congregations had not.
Others have been documenting the rise of those, as well.
Despite the fact that I’d only just started attending events in 2017, and therefore had a limited number of experiences to compare to what came just a year later, the difference was still astounding. To go from a relatively high-spirited environment that had more of a “house party” feel to it than a working conference, to a more subdued, even solemn gathering where people held prayer circles and anti-women’s healthcare groups like Wilberforce handed out stickers to their supporters so they could recognize one another, was akin to culture shock.
Of course, I had former MLAs telling me that they “didn’t recognize people in their own party” anymore, which helped.
The coalition Jason Kenney created was not necessarily keen to support Jason Kenney. As he asked of them, they focused on what united them rather than what divided them. It’s also worth reiterating that he, like Stephen Harper, came from the minority side of the Conservative base. Both former Reform MPs, they acquired the more mainstream party and folded it into a party in their own image. It was enough to get them some success, until the whackadoos demanded to be more visible.
The federal party went down after a long and painfully fraught campaign in 2015, and the provincial arm replaced Mr. Kenney with someone who promised to deliver what they wanted.
Again, COVID, and the resistance against governments who had to weigh competing rights played a huge role, both in the U.S. and Canada. It provided the fuel for their tiki torches, making the eternal flame of legitimate grievances glow brighter.
It’s why, three, four, even five years later, the pandemic and restrictions that were put in place to try and combat its spread are still brought up in these rooms today.
Alberta’s separatist “leaders” didn’t need to have high-level influence to make it look as if they did thanks to the fanatic-like pedestal on which some Alberta Conservatives placed influencers from the maga movement.
Alberta’s now-premier helped build it then and has done her best to continue legitimizing it since she was elected.
It was, and I believe still is, a movement that existed for everyone to see. Attaching oneself to it, or at least imitating it so well as to be seen as part of it, was part of the brand they were trying to create.
Taking the wind from their sails
The results from the U.S. midterms were interesting. Seeing Republican candidates go down in states where Democrats hadn’t been elected in almost 100 years, 70 years, or 40 years, was a message no one could ignore. Texas turned blue in statewide elections. Even Ted Cruz acknowledged that he was the only statewide elected Republican left standing— probably because he wasn't up for election this year. Though it’s rare for a sitting president to retain control through the midterms, even the talking parrots at FOX had to admit it was a shellacking.
That result, particularly for Alberta separatists who have looked to the maga movement’s apparent success not only as a blueprint but as a star they were reaching for, leaves them having to find another way to sustain the story they were telling; in some cases to themselves, but more importantly, to those who supported them.
Addressing their loss at home was easier when they could still point to the success of maga in the U.S..
Until they couldn’t.
I expect the latter result to dampen their public enthusiasm even more than Danielle Smith and the UCP finally telling them to put a lid on it.
The latter will just ensure that we hear about it less— at least for now.
It's the same thing Stephen Harper, Jason Kenney, and now Danielle Smith did with their coalitions— tell the inconvenient factions to turn down the noise for now; their time will come again.
History has shown us that to be true, at least.
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I highly recommend you read “The Bad Boys of Brexit: Tales of Mischief, Mayhem and Guerrilla Warfare from the Referendum Frontline” by Arron Banks if you want to get further into the mindset of these blowhard types.
The seppie lack of a realistic, defensible vision along with their underhanded dealings with a duplicitous Premier has sealed their and her fate. Dani is done, she will continue to divide, deflect, distract and deny as her power slips away, too slowly but . . .