A new poll from Janet Brown Opinion Research, commissioned by CBC, shows that separatist sentiment remains about the same as five years ago with some notable differences elsewhere. The strength of the sentiment by those who hold it has increased, even if the number of people who hold it is within “normal” range.
While separatist sentiment is enflamed by the election of Liberal governments, after listening to some of its proponents last week, they have less connection to recent history than 50, or even 150, years ago. Their focus is mainly on Pierre Trudeau, “unfair taxation” of the same rates on Alberta’s higher than average incomes, and the fantasy that Alberta, as its own nation, could enjoy the benefits of being surrounded by a friendly nation and benefit more from “keeping” federal tax dollars in the province, but also paying less provincial tax and having none of the expenses of an actual country.
To quote the Big Short, “it’s like two plus two equals fish.”
Optimistically, more Albertans say they feel a stronger connection with Canada than five years ago. Much of the increase is considered to be a reaction to threats of economic pressure and potential annexation from Donald Trump, and came at the expense of those who previously stated they feel equally attached to both Canada and Alberta. From the perspective of someone who has called another country “home” at one point, it’s the Canadian part that sticks with you when you’re no longer within its borders.
It’s a welcome counterpoint to the bad actors who will pull numbers out of some place the sun doesn’t shine in an attempt to make Albertans think separatist support in the province is growing. They’re trying to convince people that it’s popular in the hopes that more Albertans will just give up on Canada if they think everyone else is doing it. Maybe it wasn’t a thing in Australia to have your parents snap “if your friends all jumped off a bridge, would you do it too?” I’ll concede that having an Australian immigrant pushing separation is beyond grating, though I expect he’ll stick to social media where his accent remains unnoticed.
Janet Brown did tell CBC that Danielle Smith was doing a better job of reaching those who are leaning towards creating more barriers to mobility and trade if they don’t see a change in the Ottawa-Alberta relationship.
What could a Liberal government possibly do that would get the UCP to admit they were “making progress”? Especially when Smith is at the mercy of a divided membership who holds the fate of her leadership in their hands.
Whichever it is, Danielle Smith is more than willing to make it Alberta’s problem.
Playing politics
Premier Smith has published a list of nine demands to reduce regulations that she’s claimed impact investment in oil and gas development and production in the province. As a “former” oil and gas lobbyist, I would like to think she’s received direct input from them. I would like to believe that but she’s proven time and again that things get stuck in her head for little reason other than she’s convinced herself that it’s true.
Investment in large projects has decreased throughout North America since 2014. Critics can’t have it both ways; either Canada has great power and influence and Justin Trudeau’s policies are responsible for the decrease in oil and gas development beyond our own borders, or we have little to no influence and our regulatory framework doesn’t affect projects outside of our borders.
Even if the Liberals did acquiesce on all of the demands (which they’ve said they will not), it would simply be taken as proof that the regulations shouldn’t have existed in the first place. It would do nothing to advance a “reset”. It’s also not one-sided. The projection from Alberta on the federal government’s motivations is hugely problematic and Ms. Smith has effectively painted herself into a corner with her sovereignty-centric narratives that, rather than dampen separatist sentiment, seems to have only fueled it within her own party.
The fact that far more of her supporters want her to make good on the promises they’ve heard from conservatives over, and over, and over again, is unsurprising. Ms. Smith has many weaknesses but the one her supporters can exploit with ease is her inability to stand up to those she is mostly in agreement with, ideologically.
However, that resistance from Ms. Smith is not without opportunity for the Alberta NDP, if they choose to take it.
Ms. Brown also mentions that the Alberta NDP has yet to be able to speak to those who might be leaning. While it’s not an issue in their party, where supporters of the NDP are 98 per cent in favour of remaining in Canada, there’s a lesson that should be remembered from the Ottawa occupation during the pandemic; while some 80 per cent (or thereabouts) of Canadians did not support the convoy and its harassment of Ottawa residents, (edited: nearly half) of Canadians were “sympathetic”.
It is highly likely that the same sentiment exists within Alberta on issues of federal grievances and the NDP would do well to not overlook that.
On Wednesday, additional polling showed that if the election were held today, the NDP would lose seats.
Naheed Nenshi is yet an unproven leader, they still have work to do growing their party support and, like it or not, they need voters who used to vote conservative. As such, it would be worthwhile for them to choose a couple of the many available grievances that they can champion.
I’ll also add that the UCP, as Official Opposition under Jason Kenney, didn’t sit back and wait for the next election; they were making trips around the world to work ostensibly to build trade. At the time, I felt like they were overstepping their role, but on the other hand, what better way to show that the Official Opposition is in fact a government-in-waiting than to act? We know there’s nothing they can do about public policy today, but maybe they can set themselves for future success by doing whatever they can to address issues Albertans have with Ottawa in good faith.
Even if Danielle Smith wanted to act in good faith with the Liberal government, her party wouldn’t thank her for it. She’s between a rock and a hard place. This is the opportunity for the NDP: be the champion. Take those grievances to Ottawa and settle them.
Alberta NDP supporters want to stay in Canada, and 39 per cent of the UCP does as well. Show them the Alberta NDP will do the work to make it happen.
Not without risk
Within the next few days, Danielle Smith will have the interim report from the investigation she commissioned on the procurement scandal. The Auditor General has intervened in Athana Mentzelopolous’ wrongful dismissal claim to protect the integrity of his own investigation, and there is still a chance the UCP will pull the plug and send Alberta into a snap election to try and save her party’s power.
The Premier is also likely keeping a close eye on her two former caucus members, Pete Guthrie and Scott Sinclair to make sure they don’t manage to grow their own support as well. She’s not in a great position either way, especially if separatist sentiment grows louder and she’s seen as weak on the issue. Everything has risks.
If the Alberta NDP starts acting like a government-in-waiting instead of opposition, it might push the UCP to act faster. I’m no fortune teller but even with a high level of support before an election, a campaign can go sideways.
With that being said, separatist undercurrents are bad for business, investment, and pose a real risk to the livelihoods and sense of security for a majority of Albertans who want nothing to do with the conversation. It isn’t enough simply to oppose the idea; we need bold people willing to take action to move Alberta forward and away from this threat.
Someone will stand up — of that I have little doubt — it’s just a matter of who.
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Wow! Did your point about an Opposition acting like a "government-in-waiting" ever gong in my head!
The NDP have to starting hitting every community in Alberta as a "Government in Waiting" to give a target/affiliation to the voter doing the "hmmmm" thing - it should be a slam dunk talking to Albertans about a real plan for this province.
As my uncle would say "Straighten your cowboy hat and walk like you have corn to sell! "
How hard is it to show what a real plan is against the UCP record of fiscal incompetence, continually fumbling on labour relations, the decades of cloud-cuckoo health org chart muscial chairs/ executive pay-model fiascos, the whack-a-doo sabotage of clean energy investment, tampering in public administration in municipalities, the pally-pal snugfest with o&G, petting the belly of petty separtiste blackmailers etc
My God there is decades of tory creepyness/sleaze to hang the UCP with!
Smith is even attacking Sheriff and Teachers and on, the working class if she does not make a deal soon, or handle wrong. The NDP so they say, this is their wheel house.