This week in AB: May 31, 2025

Books, by-elections,

Alberta

Of books and bandwagons

BlueSky

Minister of Education Demetrios Nicolaides announced that a parent group brought some books to his attention and after his department investigated, they found that these books did exist in some school libraries.

Edmonton Public Libraries dealt with one of the titles, Blankets, back in 2016 by noting that “since the audience is adult or mature teens, we will be moving it to our adult graphic novel section.” Chances are, this book wasn’t sitting in the “new reader” section in school libraries, either. However, there are options, as I detailed Monday with a post that would definitely have them clutching their pearls at what my friends and I got up to at these tender ages.

By-elections called!

The UCP has finally called by-elections for three vacant seats, Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Ellerslie, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.

Edmonton Strathcona was vacated by former Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley as of December 31, where current Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi will run to replace her. UCP is sacrificing Darby Crouch; this time.

Edmonton-Ellerslie was vacated by NDP MLA Rod Loyola in March when he decided to seek the Liberal nomination in the federal election. Unfortunately for him, he was dropped from the Liberal Party after a 2009 video was unearthed by the CPC oppo research team that (I’m guessing) had him “cancelled”, and made returning to his provincial seat untenable for the Alberta NDP. Gurtej Singh Brar is running for NDP, Naresh Bhardwaj for the UCP, and Fred Munn for the Alberta Republicans.

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills was vacated by longtime UCP MLA (who was a Wildroser before that) Nathan Cooper as he heads to Washington to act as Envoy. Alberta Republicans leader (and former UCPer and Wildroser) Cameron Davies will contest. And, whoops; the NDP took The Honourable Speaker’s word that he would resign in June, which I have no doubt was true when he said it, the day he resigned.

The UCP is probably a little itchy to get that by-election out of the way now that Mr. Davies has popped up, and saw a chance to put the screws to the NDP.

The UCP appointed their candidate May 16 — at which time it was reported that Mr. Cooper’s intention to resign June 1 — then had Mr. Cooper quietly resign by Friday, May 23 instead. Candidate registration now closes June 5, at 2pm.

It may have put them in a crunch, but the ABNDP was able to nominate Bev Toews with plenty of time to spare.

Snap election potential still high

If an election were held in Alberta today, the UCP would win handily, potentially picking up an additional nine seats.

In one of my political circles, it’s fairly unanimous among non-UCP supporters that the UCP’s re-election chances are the best they will likely be between now and the next provincial “fixed election” date.

Between the investigations, the potential for NDP leader Naheed Nenshi to have an impact from within the Legislature, the separatist movement flexing its muscles from within the UCP, the expulsion and potential impact of Airdrie-Cochrane MLA the Hon. Pete Guthrie and Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair on growing discontent from within the UCP due to the separatist sentiment, and the likelihood of a substantial deficit on the horizon… it looks like more risk for the UCP generally, and Danielle Smith specifically, to adhere to a “fixed election” date.

On May 7, in response to a question from Opposition leader Christina Gray, Danielle Smith claimed that Judge Wyant’s investigation was on track to be completed on time.

We have a judge-led inquiry from a judge who is outside of the province, from Manitoba, and, in fact, held in such high esteem that he was the Chief Justice in Manitoba before taking this on. He has terms of reference which he can modify any time. He has chosen not to because it is very broad. He can ask questions of whoever he wishes to. He can get whatever documents that he needs. He can take whatever time he needs. If he needs more money, he can ask for more money. None of that has happened, and as a result, we are going to see a result of this report by the end of June.

Danielle Smith, May 7, 2025, Hansard page 3253

The day that interim report (for the Premier’s eyes only) was due, Chris McPherson, former Assistant Deputy Minister of the Premier’s Executive Council and current Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade, announced that Judge Wyant had indeed requested more time to complete his investigation and was granted an additional four months. His interim report is now “due” in September with the final report (for the public) expected in October.

The separatist movement — currently only an issue for the UCP and its leader — isn’t going to do them any favours in a province that still has a majority of Albertans wanting to remain in confederation, especially if Naheed Nenshi is able to place the responsibility for its inevitable negative impact on jobs, the economy, and investor uncertainty on Ms. Smith.

I suspect that the Hon. Pete Guthrie is already receiving some political advice on his next moves (though I may have some doubts on its utility), and with the additional oil output expected to begin this month a provincial deficit almost assured, the UCP could very well be dazzled by the sheer breadth of the opportunity before them.

Of course, Premier Jim Prentice also had what looked to be a positive inflection of multiple considerations in early 2015 and pounced on the opportunity to take advantage of them.

If the UCP knows that their re-election chances will definitely be made worse by waiting — as Jim Prentice did, knowing a recession would be in full swing by 2016 — then the worst-case scenario is that it plays out the same way by calling an early election. The best-case scenario, however, is that they successfully manage to downplay all of the reasons they’re holding an early election and secure an additional two years to win their way back into voter’s hearts.

Which would suggest the opposition should ready themselves for a fall election.

Canadian Medical Association challenges UCP legislation

The Canadian Medical Association has filed a challenge against the UCP’s legislation barring medical professionals from prescribing puberty blockers as part of gender-affirming care for youth.

The news came on the heels of the release of a study commissioned by Utah lawmakers, as part of their determination to deny care to transgender youth, which showed the provision of such care was overwhelmingly beneficial.

I still maintain that if we didn’t force gender “norms” on kids, they’d be much happier anyway, but I respect the medical profession enough as a whole to make the best decisions on the best available evidence.

Canada

A Throne speech for the age

I don’t generally give a lot of credence to Throne Speeches. At best, they are a wish-list and a lot of flowery words to talk about the goals of the government of the day. At worst, they’re a partisan screed that, when read by a non-partisan representative, is cringeworthy, to say the least. Obviously, when you invite the King to read it instead of the government-appointed Government General, it can land differently; as this one did for me.

I’m Canadian, and I love Canada, for all its faults; so long as we continue to strive to be better. I’m no authority on the subject but I believe that most of us want that for ourselves and our children, grandchildren, and beyond.

I’m also a Scot, with English roots as well. I respect the fact that the U.S. fought for independence from the Crown and won. I hate the fact that Scotland fought for its independence multiple times and failed. As a Canadian, I would pledge an oath to the King in a heartbeat. I don’t usually think of myself as contradictory, but in this one instance, I will accept that I might be.

That the Crown is a “unifying force”, I can accept. In the wake of Trump’s threats against us, I welcome it, wholeheartedly (much to the dismay of some of my friends).

Also, full disclosure, I’m a sucker for the accent.

Can we talk about Pierre?

We’re all trying to pretend that Pierre Poilievre losing the seat he had for 20 years isn’t as big of a deal as gaining seats, or increasing their overall vote count to still lose the election they were all but guaranteed to win before election day.

Truly, we watch his pressers — attended by a member of parliament because he is not permitted to be in the hall without one — and try to give his words more meaning than they actually have while he is an unelected representative awaiting his coronation in the riding of Battle River-Crowfoot in Alberta.

I will say it’s lovely to not have to deal with all the “but he’s not even elected” BS from my family as we await the moment.

At first, I was certain his leadership was solid as a rock but as the days wear on, it looks less so simply because he’s not really relevant as either an opposition leader (Andrew Scheer takes that title for now), or as leader of the “government-in-waiting” since he’s already waited two years and sitting out another two — or, heaven forbid, four — is even more lame than a “Pierre for PM” sign behind a LEGO replica of Parliament.

I understand that Pierre Poilievre has had his sights set on becoming Prime Minister since he was in his teens. It’s sad. The CPC probably shouldn’t allow that sadness to represent their entire reason for being, though.

That I initially thought his aspirations could overcome his reality, I’m no longer certain. I think the CPC will either have a new leader to fight the next election or lose.

Just a gut feeling.

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