I’m not going to be glib about the fact that people are dying in the Middle East; it’s nothing to be glib about. I will focus on what the fallout looks to mean for the UCP in Alberta, and their bad news budget that might not be anything to worry about… because the U.S. and Israel started a war in Iran. I’m not going to go into the morality, or the folly, or the fact that few wars have solved problems and I can’t think of one that the U.S. was involved in, in the Middle East, that has solved any.
We may be able to make our daily decisions, or even really important decisions in a vacuum that doesn’t need to consider geopolitical fallout from halfway around the world but our governments (despite their refusal to consider it unless they directly benefit) do not have the luxury.
And we don’t have the luxury to ignore its impact, either.
Danielle Smith couldn’t have been happier while answering questions about her bad news budget Monday. After the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran and the apparently shocking reaction that Iran would attack all the middle eastern countries surrounding it who have been helping the U.S., oil prices are up. Iran’s military seems to be intent on burning the bridges of everyone around them if they’re going down, too. In retaliation, Iran has hit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the Strait of Hormuz— an incredibly important shipping route that delivers oil from those countries to China, India, and elsewhere. Alberta’s governing party must be absolutely giddy with relief.
With forecasts suggesting oil prices could surge as high as $150/bbd— which the Conservatives budgeted at $60— our chronically mismanaged finances will get a much-needed boost and no one will care how many hundreds of millions are being siphoned off to friends and family of the governing party. No one will care that Danielle Smith’s two-tier healthcare restructuring will cost billions. By the end of the year, the province could be absolutely flush with cash, relieving Finance Minister Nate Horner from the responsibility of actually having to plan to balance a budget again this term.
Unlike our many promises, we will probably piss it away this time too, but the numbers might be so big that it just doesn’t matter to voters. We’re talking record surplus in an election year, double-digit debt repayment, maybe some more Dani-dollars to address affordability, a substantial deposit into the Heritage Fund, and there might even be money to update Calgary’s aging water line infrastructure. All for free!!!
Plus, the case will be clear for another pipeline and private interests might even be inclined to put up some of their own money to get it started quickly. It’s absolutely fantastic for a governing party that was wishing and hoping instead of working on a plan.
The news over the weekend of U.S./Israel attacks on Iran does officially bury my own supposition that the UCP would add tax increases to their referenda in the fall; no need to worry about who’s going to pay the bills if oil prices keep rising!
Sometimes the oil gods really are willing to answer those prayers; realistically, there’s a psycho willing to start a war.
I’m not making light of the U.S. starting a war in the Middle East. There seems to be no verifiable reason why the U.S. stepped in. Their own people deny it was necessary.
It doesn’t change the fact that they did, nor that we— and any country who literally stole oil from another country— will benefit.
For Canadians in Alberta, optimistically, it also means that the Premier and her staff aren’t likely to try and dredge up more anti-immigrant sentiment because Albertans will be less interested in a scapegoat when the change in their pocket is a-jingling. Have the Premier and her staffers already done a lot of damage anyway? Yes, but the good news is that they might not target them harder; at least for now.
The opposition— who had an uphill battle anyway— just hit a 90 degree incline. A fully-stocked treasury takes away their ability to chip away at voter confidence in the governing party’s ability to address the issues Alberta. This hits the Tories, as well as the NDP.
AB Tories’ Pete Guthrie has been a solid, and credible, critic of the Conservative’s organization and general mismanagement. The NDP has been consistent on the same, even if they still manage to need more credibility.
On the chance that the fortunes of the governing party are about to drastically change, they will need to pivot or risk pulling a Poilievre.
Finance Minister Nate Horner was honest enough to admit that he and his party had no plan, and no path, to meet their obligations to Albertans. There has to be something to work with there. Maybe Albertans don’t actually want to piss away another chance at an oil boom; I couldn’t say for sure. However, the time to talk about it definitely isn’t a year from now.
Transparency and accountability should remain front of mind issues with the governing party seeking to hide healthcare management behind a Crown Corporation. That is insane. When the UCP hid the oil and gas war room— a single office of fewer than 12 people with a $30 million annual budget— behind a Crown Corporation, there was zero accountability. Under no circumstances can this happen to the UCP’s remake of AHS.
Last, and least, if the province has a lot of money to spend, the separatists are going to suffer. Fewer people can be bothered with being angry when they’re feeling the highs of oil booms themselves. Additionally, if there is pipeline movement, it will hurt their numbers. Anything that is good for Albertans hurts the separatist movement.
Separatists need continued deficits and no plan. Minister Horner and the Premier seemed prepared to deliver that to them on a silver platter. However, they didn’t further defund services Albertan rely on; at least on paper. They’re mostly just political communications documents for the voters that tell us what the governing party wants us to think they care about. There’s no accountability, however. If they turn around and say they just couldn’t make it work, well, voters can hang onto that until the next election.
Budgets are useless political grandstanding as far as I’m concerned. They can make big commitments and simply not follow through because the money wasn’t there. Budgets are wishes and hopes; the reality shows up next year when we find out if they put the money where they said they would.
Separatists need Albertans using food banks in record numbers. They need housing crunches, people feeling poorer, and the government failing to deliver on healthcare and education. The separatists need Albertans to hurt so that it makes their ludicrous promises more appealing. If Albertans are doing well, they will be far less likely to decide to burn everything down.
Frankly, I don’t know if this is a positive or negative post. There’s good news but bad news, but also good news, and bad news.
Albertans are used to this rollercoaster and we may be primed to take advantage of what’s coming; or not.
The one thing I can be certain of is that the opposition needs to consider that the landscape might have completely changed. Even if constituents can convince themselves their decisions are made in a bubble, governments, and therefore the opposition, no longer have that privilege either.
Don’t Poilieve it up.
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Either way, those NOT working in the oil business won’t see a dime of any profit, our wallets are paying for their profits. I don’t consider the Epstein war and resulting higher costs in every area a “win” when they had ZERO plan to fix their incompetence. But of course, all the oligarchs getting rich off the war is EXACTLY her game, isn’t it?
But Dorito Boy and company will be thrilled with the higher oil prices as well!