Why Canada should be worried about Trump’s 51st state “joke”

Trump was already taking his joke too far; it was only going to get worse.

(This article was originally pitched to a newspaper outlet December 9, 2024 and has been updated slightly.)

When President-elect Donald Trump said that Canada should think about becoming the 51^st state if tariffs bankrupt its economy, it’s possible he was joking.

Mr. Trump, who should serve his final term as President beginning in January 2025, is well aware that free trade and exploitative labour practices by American-owned brands has left a chasm of growing under-employment in working-class America; after all, he’s participated in the practice himself with much of his Trump-branded merchandise fully, or at least initially, produced overseas.

In a post on his social media site Truth Social in late November, Mr. Trump announced that on day one of his administration, a 25 per cent tariff would be applied to all goods imported from Canada and Mexico; a move that is meant to rekindle interest in American manufacturing.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago that week to talk with the incoming President directly, where Mr. Trump first made the joke about Canada becoming a 51^st state, a quip Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith found “hilarious”.

Days later, Mr. Trump posted an AI photo of himself standing on a mountain top, surveying a range of mountains with a Canadian flag planted in the ground next to him.

That the incoming president of the United States has spent his entire adult life building and branding his name is no secret, and he’s been very good at it, at least in terms of ensuring his name was well-recognized before he ever sought the presidency.

He is a man obsessed with his own legacy.

Mr. Trump wants to be remembered for “making America great again”. He wants to be known as the smartest, strongest, most influential president the United States ever had, and his ever-expansive personal ambitions are not likely to be hampered by something as trivial as a border nation’s sovereignty.

Wreaking economic havoc on the sovereign nations that comprise the entirely of North America provides Mr. Trump the sole advantage in any negotiation with Canada and Mexico. We would be remiss in trying to convince ourselves that we could “make it through” because he only has four years, as Mr. Trump has not indicated he will abide by political, or even legal, norms.

Mr. Trump was likely satisfied with becoming “leader of the free world” the first time. He was given access to the most powerful people and even if his braggadocio didn’t land as well outside of the country as within, he still had the benefit of knowing that his position afforded him a level of deference that he didn’t have to earn – a level that, as the grandson of a barber, and the son of a woman who used to clean houses, he has yearned for.

While Mr. Trump’s notion of “fairness” was seen as hypocritical at best, and fake at worst, by those who understood it to refer to his financial advantages, he was able to convince voters on the campaign trail that they are working towards the same goal because he lacks the same thing many, if not most, Americans lack – a well-established and reputable family name that offers opportunities one cannot access, even with a hefty bank account balance.

During his first term, Mr. Trump displayed a willingness to accept Canada’s leadership as, if not equal in power, at least equal in stature. Part of that comes from the fact that the Prime Minister is an elected leader of a sovereign nation. Some of it, though, likely existed because Justin Trudeau possesses a family name that has the long-standing reputation Mr. Trump covets and has spent his lifetime trying to build.

As Mr. Trump has continued making his “joke”, the threat that he would realize the potential of trying to make it reality grew.

He has repeatedly referred to Canada as “the great state”, and the Prime Minister as a “governor”, something that has to be worrisome for Pierre Poilievre, who would almost certainly become Prime Minister if an election were held in the next month.

He has talked about “subsidizing Canada” as if we’re a red state. No, the U.S. doesn’t “subsidize” Canada by paying for the goods we sell them any more than Trump subsidizes McDonald’s every time he orders a cheeseburger.

What began as a “joke” may have blossomed into what Mr. Trump may view as a once in a lifetime opportunity to secure the legacy of his family name by becoming the man who united North America and became leader of half a continent, rather than just 50 states.

As Trump sat fiddling during the witching hour this morning, he finally said it out loud.

“Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st State,” Trump projected. “They would save massively on taxes and military protection. I think it’s a great idea. 51st State!!!”

It’s a goal worthy of the ambition of a man whose legacy is only a few years away from being, rather than making, history.

And he has more than enough ego to make our lives hell to achieve it.

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