It was a Hollywood-worthy smash and grab.
Members of the U.S. military dropped a few bombs, killed some armed men and a couple of sleeping civilians, grabbed the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, and handed them over to the FBI who then flew back to the U.S..
Meanwhile, a photographer was tasked with trying to recreate an iconic “situation room” photo of Donald Trump, whose attempt at pensiveness came off as pained, but fell just short of constipated. Foregoing the formality of including a group with highly decorated military expertise, Mr. Trump was instead surrounded by his close circle of political appointees, with a few staffers in suits lined dutifully against the back wall, and a 40-inch monitor displaying someone’s Twitter feed nearby.
One can almost be certain that the abduction was successful entirely in spite of those watching intently far from harm’s way.
The rest of the day was spent answering questions from reporters and showing just how little thought had gone into it; at least by POTUS himself.
It was widely reported that Nicolas Maduro stole the 2024 election, something he was also accused of in the country’s previous election. Canada, for its part, has officially not recognized Mr. Maduro’s claim to the presidency since 2018. In a January 3 statement, Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated that his support was for Venezuelans to choose their next leadership democratically; something that may not be possible even with the figurehead gone.
The United States has long been involved in regime change, but Administrations past have generally tried to sell their interests as the “people’s” interests in whichever country’s leadership they’re interfering with. Mr. Trump, of course, has never bothered to even feign putting someone else’s interests above his own.
Thanks to POTUS’ disconnect with reality, between his and his appointees’ statements on the day the abduction was made public, there was a lot of confusion around what role the U.S. would play. When asked if he would appoint the opposition leader, Maria Corina Mochado to the Presidency, Mr. Trump claimed “she doesn’t have the respect” of the people.
Rumour has it that her receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize for continuing to fight for the people of Venezuela and the restoration of democracy in the country made the guy who has ordered (or shrugged while someone else did) bombs dropped in seven different countries since his inauguration, jelly. Yes, that is (probably worn out) slang meaning “jealous” and I stand by my usage as it is befitting towards an adult who acts like that.
However, it looks as if regime change is not in the cards.
Venezuela’s Supreme Court ruled that Mr. Maduro’s Vice President, Delsy Rodriguez would take over as President, and by the end of January 3, the White House “accepted” it. Mr. Trump added that she “will ‘pay a very big price’ if she doesn’t ‘do what’s right’ and cooperate with U.S. intervention…”.
I must make clear that I knew little about Venezuela’s history before January 3. I’ve been reading a lot of social posts, articles, and watching explainer videos from people I don’t know talking about what was going on beforehand. For those who don’t have a couple of days to do that, here’s the TLDR version.
Lofty goals of socialism, just like lofty goals of freedom, are simply unreachable through corruption and totalitarianism. It doesn’t matter what they call themselves, or what colour their sign is; if their favour can be bought they are corrupt. If they put the wants of the few over the needs of the many, they are not governing for the people.
There are differing accounts of the country’s history. Sources I will share suggest that one cannot support a population on oil royalties alone. Others include accusations of rampant corruption, and most popular in certain circles is governments owning businesses and using profits to provide benefits that support the well-being of a population is for loser nations that want to go broke. Guess which circles those are.
Most importantly from the source I included above, is a brief notation that Mr. Chavez neglected to spend enough money to properly maintain oil infrastructure.
Before his death in 2013, Mr. Chavez appointed Mr. Maduro as his successor. Mr. Maduro’s qualifications for the position begin and end with him being a loyal supporter of Mr. Chavez and the country’s fortunes have followed accordingly.
Under their stewardship, the country’s oil industry has atrophied. Venezuela still exports oil but much less than even sanctions account for.
It’s not just the fact that Mr. Trump and his hack appointees authorized the abduction of the leader of another country for personal gain. Considering the Administration’s expansionist desires and disregard for the sovereignty of multiple nations, their disdain for their own rule of law, let alone international law, should be worrisome for everyone who’s been unlucky enough to be in their crosshairs. Normalizing this behaviour puts the rest of us at risk.
Abducting their leader, illegitimate thought he allegedly was, and demanding ownership of their oil ties back to Mr. Trump’s promise to put economic pressure on Canada; replacing our oil would cause us additional strife.
Especially for a province that relies so heavily on royalties to make up the difference between what services actually cost and using a catchy, if horrendously misleading slogan like “Alberta Advantage” that advocates for not worrying about the costs because: low taxes!
Mr. Trump has said multiple times that he was taking back the oil that Venezuela “stole”. The oil that is still in the ground, in Venezuela. Entirely unable to help himself, he also claimed the U.S. was going “to run” Venezuela, and that their oil was going to make the U.S. rich again because oil companies “want to go in so badly.”
Record scratch.
Hegseth, we have a problem
First, let’s talk about oil. Venezuela has a very heavy bitumen-like crude which is very similar to what we have in Alberta. This is why, initially, more than a few people who have no idea what they’re talking about thought stealing oil from Venezuela would solve the Canada problem.
Why yes, that is from the wife of Trump-appointee Stephen Miller; state secrets don’t even exist there anymore, but that these people want to end free trade with Canada should not come as a surprise. They’ve been saying exactly what they want from us for over a year.
First, let’s bring back that point about oil infrastructure being “atrophied” in Venezuela. That means they can’t just start it up again; it needs to be fully rebuilt as it’s likely from the 1980’s oil glut that was felt by every oil producing nation and was not, despite popular lore, a result of Canadian oil policy.
I know that some conservatives like to believe that the only reason oil giants stopped investing in oil sands projects in Alberta was because the NDP was elected provincially, and then Justin Trudeau was elected federally. It’s right up there with Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program caused the 1980’s recession… globally. The problem is that they shelved future projects before either of those things happened because they’re businesses, not partisan hacks.
Just like Alberta, building up Venezuela’s oil industry would take billions in capital expenditures, with no return, for around six to ten years. Every additional barrel pushed into the market reduces the price one can get for it. Supply and demand.
Heavy oil is neither easy to extract nor ship. Millions of hours and billions upon billions, hell, maybe even upon billions more have gone into making the Alberta industry what it is today.
The issue is that there is a price point at which that investment becomes untenable. In 2014, it was a forecasted sustained lower price per barrel due to demand and supply getting too close together. That was followed by the shale oil boom, which was followed by the pandemic. Venezuela didn’t even receive sanctions until 2019.
For real businesses that have to rely on a cost benefit analysis, there is no business case for oil companies to invest in rebuilding the Venezuelan oil industry.
Oil and guns; it’s only a good mix in Texas
There are two reasons why I don’t see any of the majors offering to invest their own capital in Venezuela. First, unlike the Trump Administration, business people are going to think further ahead because they need a plan to justify spending billions of dollars.
And what happens next is that the price of oil drops if they increase the supply. Simple.
Even if that wasn’t just one reality the Trump Administration doesn’t want to face, what company would set up shop in a country whose military was owned by the guy the U.S. just abducted? If Venezuela is about to break out into militarized camps of Maduro supporters and regime change supporters, and maybe even a third for Rodriguez… in a country that already once nationalized its oil…
It’s beyond wishful thinking that any company is going to bankroll rebuilding the Venezuelan oil industry on their own dime.
The utter lack of forethought is embarrassing. However, I have no doubt the Administration would fully fund rebuilding the industry because they want to own the liberal-voting country. Literally.
It doesn’t change the fact that even if the Trump Administration throws a trillion dollars at such a massive undertaking, the fact that they will increase supply ensures the U.S. will never get its money back. Just ask Chevron.
And for those trumped up conservatives who have been getting high off this for the past couple of days, reality is going to provide a hell of a hangover.
Someone dig out the recorders for a song, eh?
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Agree, but...
The Imperialist USA intervention into the affairs of a sovereign American state must act as a wakeup call to Canada, and to Alberta in particular.
The time for hand-ringing, breath-holding, then sighing gratefully because we made it through another economic disaster, and running out to get the new F-350 is over.
The economic oil rollercoaster is not a practical way to finance a Province.
Our government must change that.
We must change our government for tgat to change.
It was reported yesterday on Substack that Trump had NOT contacted any of the oil oligarchs in the US about this at all, he just can’t help the bs flying out of his mouth. Marco Rubio has wanted regime change in Cuba for decades, that’s where he was born and forced to flee as a kid. Venezuela will stop supply of oil to Cuba next, because Rubio wants regime change. Trump and HIS regime must be removed. That much is clear. What an actual klusterfuck for the entire democratic world, get him out Americans!