Separatist headaches
Former PC Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk continues to build the Forever Canadian movement in the face of a UCP government-backed separatist push, potentially preparing for a campaign to match what could be a well-funded foreign interference play. Alberta Prosperity Project spokesperson Jeffrey Rath has claimed to be meeting with members of the Trump Administration to secure financial support to compensate for his lack of charisma in selling his poison pill to Albertans. Canadian officials have said his group’s actions do not constitute a treasonous act. It really feels like the moment you go asking a foreign government to help that it should. In my opinion, of course.
If you’re interested in some great facts and figures from Dr. Jared Wesley’s research with the Common Ground Politics team, he gave a presentation on the separatist movement in Alberta at McGill University in Quebec on January 19. You can also read it on Substack at Decoding Politics.
Though the separatist/grievance movement in Alberta has a long history, it’s made some incredible leaps. From Dr. Wesley’s presentation, he likened the past movements like Reform as willing to work within institutional and democratic frameworks while today’s is more about putting themselves and their interests above the rules. What I’ve seen over the past few years is another disturbing trend from libertarian utopian freedom to hardcore socialist fantasy.
Though there were some hints within the convoy movement’s demands, it has spread (for good reason, I’m sure) amongst separatist supporters in Alberta. As they’re waxing dreamily over how everyone in Alberta would be rich if only we didn’t have to pay federal taxes, the logic (if individual circumstances apply) is to each their own savings. Since their recent flare up, however, they’ve taken to claiming oil money would contribute more, potentially all the costs (like Venezuela?). The apparently seamless transition from “mandate freedom” warrior to “nationalization is a great idea if it benefits me” is why some say horseshoe theory exists (though it’s been widely discredited).
I’ll defend my unwavering centrism by noting that criticisms of the theory come from analysis of legitimate groups on the left and right extremes; groups that have defined principles and goals, rather than the people who have been persuaded to jump on the bandwagon without sharing either. Call them voters, or supporters, but they’re not activists who show up to do the work; more like the ones who show up when the dinner bell rings and disappear before someone asks them to help with the dishes.
Consequences for the rest of us
Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation launched a request for injunction on January 5, with Chief Sheldon Sunshine adding that “Bill 14 really crossed the line.”
“To us, it seems like [the province is] making accommodations for a small group of people.”
I couch my words sometimes as well, but I’d say that’s exactly right; Danielle Smith and her Cabinet have gone out of their way to make it easier for their separatist party membership to play in the mud. Dr. Wesley suggested that under the structure of the UCP that Jason Kenney built, the premier has little recourse because the membership can have her removed at will. Or they can just organize well enough that the leader has enough support to pass the review but resigns in disappointment. I digress.
Take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.
The “United” Conservative Party has amended the laws in Alberta to help the separatists and in so doing, they have put Canadian unity at risk, as well as our national security.
Of course, we know separatists and their enablers don’t care a whit about that but dangling the pot of oil money under some people’s noses puts Alberta’s economic future at risk, too. Unconcerned, they are lining up to be counted.
I think Alberta has done tremendous disservice to itself by allowing this dangerous referendum to go ahead; regardless of whether you’re pro or against separation, the fact that we’re going to have this conversation means that it’s going to destabilize the local economy and all you have to do is look at Quebec 30 years ago where they had a referendum that was much closer than I think the one in Alberta is going to be and they’ve never recovered from it.
Their economy has been one of the “have nots” for some time now where it used to be one of the haves. And it’s not an accident; businesses will run at the thought of instability. We’ve already seen it in Canada when it comes to the U.S. menacing us, we’re now going to shoot ourselves in the foot and it doesn’t have to be that way. We have a premier with an economics degree. If she can’t put forward the numbers for why this is good news, then the best thing to do is shut it down before it does damage.
Economist Moshe Lander on the Courtney Theriault Show, 880 CHED, Jan. 12, 2025
It doesn’t even matter if a referendum were to be unsuccessful, as it was in Quebec in the 1990’s. The fact that it could be successful back then spurred an exodus of capital and business out of the province that has never returned. The Bank of Montreal has been headquartered in Toronto since; businesses do not like that kind of uncertainty.
While some have forgotten, or simply never experienced the crisis, we have Brexit to remind us that nothing is guaranteed; especially when there are bad actors desperately seeking a way to get their hands on some of that grievance-fueled cash.
Just look to any scam artist and you’ll see the similarities; dazzling people with promises of huge benefits and virtually no risk. It always ends the same: a few people will benefit, the scammer disappears once the jig is up, and everyone else loses.
Although Danielle Smith didn’t campaign on pushing a separatist agenda on Albertans, or businesses, she did campaign against her government being responsible for public health, and promised to dismantle the healthcare system. It’s going really well from a wrecking ball’s point of view but less well for the people inside.
UCP promises six doctors to help overcrowded ER’s
Danielle Smith has long been a proponent of for-profit care. It’s why she and first Health Minister Adriana LaGrange have been willing to pay double for surgeries performed outside of hospitals but not properly fund those within. The two have been joined at the hip on healthcare reform and the latter also announced new legislation would be coming to better support private delivery.
Ms. Smith understands on some level that the money has to come from somewhere, but rather than reinstitute a health premium that would go directly to healthcare costs, her preference is to push private insurers who can only make a profit by charging excessive premiums or denying coverage. That also bleeds into my expectation that the insurance industry wants to swap auto and home insurance for health, which the premier is doing her best to accommodate.
Within the first week of the year, Edmonton physicians begged the provincial leaders to call a state of emergency, and physicians helped compile documentation in an effort to get a response from elected officials. A second Health Minister, Matt Jones, addressed the call to action by saying he would reach out to “service providers” and “agencies” who are apparently in charge now. He added that six “triage liaison physician” roles would be piloted and placed in the “busiest” emergency rooms.
Danielle Smith was on vacation but did post on social media that her government would set up a “dashboard” so Albertans could have the choice of which waiting room they might not be seen.
Hopefully it will include a list of which emergency rooms are closed entirely so that Albertans know not to even bother trying to get help at all.
Calling an ambulance may or may not work out as staffing shortages have been ongoing since 2022, and even shuffling the department hasn’t improved outcomes. In fact, availability may be getting worse.
… but the economy!
Danielle Smith says she’s picking out three routes for potential pipelines through B.C., including one through protected areas in the northern region of the province, that would require a special exemption of the tanker ban.
It has its roots in psychology; by adding a request that the other person really doesn’t want to have to consider, it makes the others look better by comparison. Fundraisers do this as well; they’ll call the donor list at Christmas and ask if you can spare a $250 donation (even though you usually donate $25). Worst-case scenario at this point is that you balk. That’s okay; their goal is really just to get you to donate $25. They asked for more because if you have it, great; if you don’t, that’s okay, too. You might end up giving $50 because it’s more reasonable than the initial ask.
Politically, B.C. Premier David Eby can be playing the same game. He knows he’s going to get pushback on another pipeline and he needs something to stand firmly against. Give him something he can rally support behind and we can get to “yes” on something else.
Long story short, there’s support for another pipeline or two because the Trump Administration is attacking Canadians. There’s will and therefore, there’s a way.
Final thoughts
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Deirdre, where is Peter Guthrie, I can’t even find a functioning website for them. Where is Nenshi? It feels like they’re waiting for someone to hand them the election, I’ve seen NOTHING from either one? Are they only on Facebook or something, like we have 10 crises’s on fire here, WTF!!
Thanks for this update Deirdre. (Nenshi does post on YouTube.)
I think it's time someone did an economic analysis of the current financial situation in AB with a forward projection of the state of the O&G industry, past this moment - what advantage/disadvantage to AB citizens; the cost of O&G obligations to tax payers; the contribution from tax payers to O&G operations (pipelines) - and the cost of Smith's privatization of everything (healthcare, education etc) to citizens. Either through a lack of Civics knowledge or bad math, the UCP has been able to sell the 'blame Ottawa' narrative. Question: who benefits?